It has officially announced that Rakuten will finally enter the mobile carrier business.
At the timing of the article from the Nikkei Shimbun on December 14, I thought it was Nikkei's skipping article, but on the same day, a press release came out from Rakuten.
It is said to be newly assigned this year, 1.7GHz band and 3.It seems to make an application to get the frequency of the 4GHz band.
Several key points are shown in the press release.
・ Service start time: Service starting in 2019
・ Number of target users: 15 million or more
・ Procurement balance: Approximately 200 billion yen at the start of service in 2019, up to 600 billion yen in 2025
It has been announced to raise up to 600 billion yen and use it for capital investment.However, there are also voices saying that 600 billion yen is not enough to build mobile carrier infrastructure.
In fact, NTT DOCOMO spends more than 250 billion yen (about 500 billion yen per year) in six months for capital investment.Given that a new mobile infrastructure is made from zero, it seems physically impossible to compete with the three major carriers on a scale of 600 billion yen by 2025.
*NTT DOCOMO FY03/18 February 2018 Financial Restrictions Briefing Meeting (2017/10/26)
In addition, although the amount of 600 billion yen is a good amount of Rakuten size, it is not a small amount, so it is a complete win to raise such a large amount and invest in capital.I don't think I will play.
The amount of 600 billion yen seems to be unsatisfactory to compete with the three major carriers that have already built huge infrastructure throughout Japan, but Rakuten is the fourth communication.Do you aim for a career?
Today I would like to guess the strategy around that.
First of all, I am not a mobile carrier expert, so I would be grateful if the content described in this article contained many guesses in many ways.Also, if you have any points in this article, "it will be different!"
Review your vocabulary before entering the content.The technical definition is of course important, but here I would like to write the difference between MNO and MVNO easily.
・ MNO: Think of it as a mobile carrier that owns infrastructure in -house.
In Japan, there are three companies: NTT DOCOMO, KDDI, and SoftBank.
・ MVNO: Think of it as a mobile carrier that does not own infrastructure in -house like the current Rakuten Mobile.
First, let's briefly review the strengths of Rakuten Mobile as the current MVNO business.
Very simple, Rakuten Mobile's strengths are roughly divided into two.
The first is that customer acquisition costs are reduced compared to other MVNOs.Considering the linkage of Rakuten brands and other services of Rakuten, there is no doubt that an unknown venture company has been able to acquire customers at lower costs than starting MVNO.
The second strength is that the cancellation rate is lower than other MVNOs.It is easy to imagine that the cancellation rate of Rakuten Mobile will be lower than the normal MVNO by giving preferential cooperation between Rakuten Mobile and Rakuten's other services and the ratio of points.。
In the case of the MVNO business, the communication line basically uses the NTT DOCOMO line, so unless the line fee is stingy so that it is difficult to connect in congestion, the differentiation at the service level is physically disrupted.It is possible.
Meanwhile, Rakuten is the most important KPI of the subscription business (a model that charges a certain amount for the usage period, rather than paying individual products or services, but a fixed -rate system).And there is no doubt that you are in a position that is more advantageous than other MVNOs in that it has a brand and infrastructure that optimizes "Life Time Value".
Rakuten Mobile, which has acquired FREETEL and has increased the number of contractors to 1.4 million, can easily imagine that the larger the MVNO, the more likely it is.
The weaknesses of MVNO operators are that the gross profit margin is small, the infrastructure depends on the MNO, so it is difficult to control the service level, and the service level cannot be differentiated against the competitive MVNO.It is.
It is thought that Rakuten has decided to acquire the frequency of mobile carriers to overcome these unique weaknesses that are currently held.
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To the last, it will be the story of Taraba, but Rakuten is considering the assignment this time 1.7GHz band and 3.Is it possible to create a communication infrastructure comparable to the current three major carriers, assuming that both 4GHz bands were able to acquire both frequencies, and if they allowed a much larger capital investment fee, rather than 600 billion yen.?
For more information, I think it would be better to see the following article, but from the conclusion, 1.7GHz band and 3.It is almost impossible to create a communication infrastructure comparable to the current three major carriers, no matter how much capital investment is made in the 4GHz band alone.
Can Rakuten become a "fourth career" (Agora speech platform: Nobuo Ikeda: 2017/12/15)
(Of course, there are exceptions, but as a general theory, radio waves tend to reach far away as the frequency is smaller. Therefore, 800 megahertz band and 1..Comparing the 7GHz band, the 800 Megahertz band will be able to cover the area more with the smaller number of base stations.)
I wrote a lot of around, but I know before I did it before I did it because the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications is considering the assignment alone.
In such a situation, where is Rakuten a new career aiming for a fourth career?
How many people know that Google is conducting an MVNO business called Project Fi?
Google does not build a mobile infrastructure himself, but has partnerships with two mobile carriers, T-Mobile and Sprint in the United States.When the user sets up a SIM card issued by Google, depending on the location of the user and the surrounding usage, a service that automatically switches the connection to those who are more connected to radio waves than either T-Mobile or Sprint.Google Project Fi.
This time, I personally feel that the closest model when Rakuten aims for the fourth career is the PROJECT FI model.
What it means is that even if all the newly assigned frequencies can be obtained, there is a lot of complaints that say "I can't connect!"That is visible.
So, isn't it trying to increase both cover and efficiency by using NTT DOCOMO's network and its own MNO network?
Below, maybe you will probably enter a new way in this way?This is a self -esteem, but I would like to write it.
The other day, IIJ, the largest MVNO in Japan, announced that it will aim for a full MVNO in 2018.
Difference between "Full MVNO" and "Light MVNO" (It Media Mobile 2017/12/7) [4]
All of the MVNO services currently offered are classified as light MVNOs.Full MVNO is an additional or core network part to the light MVNO.
Although it is described in this way, when it comes to full MVNO, you can hold network identifiers in -house.
As mentioned in the article "This is the surviving road of MVNO! IIJ: Weekly Mobile Communications Junya Ishino" (Engadget 2017/11/8), it publishes a SIM card independently when it comes to full MVNO.You will be able to do it.
Not only that, the company's network name will be recognized next to the radio wave mark on the mobile terminal.
Currently, the SIM card provided by MVNOs such as Rakuten Mobile is in the form of borrowing NTT DOCOMO SIM cards, and I think that a network "NTT DOCOMO" is also displayed on the mobile terminal, but full MVNO.By becoming, IIJ and Rakuten will issue their own SIM cards, and they will be recognized by each brand name on mobile phones.
As an aside, if the SIM, which is directly built into the device called ESIM used in iPad Pro etc., becomes mainstream in the future, it will be full MVNO to provide communication services directly to these devices.There is also a need for it.
The following statement is described in the ITMEDIA article at the beginning.
The biggest point here is that you can have a business indirect connection with MNOs other than the host MNO.
In other words, when Rakuten becomes a full MVNO, it is technically possible to connect to both Rakuten MNO and NTT DOCOMO MNO, which are built in -house.
Step 2 is that the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications applies for frequency assignments and the frequency is actually available.
If an advisory is made in this table announced by Rakuten, it will be determined which frequency band will be assigned to which mobile operators will be assigned around the end of March 2018.
If the frequency is assigned to Rakuten, we will raise up to 600 billion yen, make capital investment, and build a mobile phone base station.
When building this base station, "coverage" and "efficiency" are important.
For example, in places in the city center of Tokyo, it is necessary to increase the density of base stations, and it is an economic idea that in a region with low population density, it does not build base stations as much as possible.
As mentioned above, if Rakuten Mobile can connect to both Rakuten MNO and DOCOMO MNO as a full MVNO, set a base station only in areas where Rakuten MNO has many access during peak hours.Is the most reasonable.
This is because the amount paid from the light MVNO to docomo MNO is determined by the thickness of the peak line used by MVNO.Therefore, from the MVNO's point of view, it is economically important to reduce traffic to docomo MNO at the peak.
The peak of mobile phone communication is mainly during lunch hours and late -night hours, so if the population is densely populated in these two times, the base station will be set up preferentially.You can think about it.
Finally, if you come this far, you will be mechanically performing traffic from Rakuten MNO and DOCOMO MNO, which Rakuten Mobile issued as a full MVNO.
Specifically, as I wrote above, the area where the population is densely populated, and during the time when there are many traffic, many traffic flows to the company's Rakuten MNO.It will flow.
If you have a good intuition here, I think there is one question that comes out.The debate is, "What happens if docomo refuses to connect to Rakuten MVNO as MNO?"
In conclusion, it is quite difficult to refuse DOCOMO to connect to a specific MVNO.If this is a SoftBank or KDDI, it may still be possible to refuse to connect to a specific MVNO or make the contract condition an advantageous form on the MNO side.However, NTT DOCOMO, which has invested in capital as a state -owned company in the past, has been "guidance" by the country to open the line to MVNO companies in the past.
In addition, as mentioned above, IIJ has already agreed to be a full MVNO using the docomo MNO line, so the logic that IIJ is good and Rakuten is useless is quite difficult from the current NTT DOCOMO position.It should be.
Looking at this, Rakuten's "aiming for the fourth mobile carrier" means that "we will invest in company in -house only for efficient parts while riding well on the NTT DOCOMO line."So, it seems personally as a strategy that is a good thing to say badly.
There have been many criticism that it would be impossible to build a mobile carrier with an investment of 600 billion yen after the announcement of Rakuten's new entry, but if the content you wrote here can be realized,It seems that a fairly small capital investment may really create a fourth mobile carrier.
At the beginning, he stated that Rakuten Mobile's current strength as a light MVNO is the following two.
If something you wrote in this article happens, you will get the following benefits for Rakuten Mobile.
Again, the content I wrote here does not have a personal speculation range, but I thought it was a very well -made strategy, so I tried to write an article.
What did the readers think?
From a consumer perspective, there are only three players in the regulatory industry, and it is definitely plus in terms of service that companies with brand power and financial bases like Rakuten are new to the fact that the price is high.I think it will work.
I would like to keep an eye on the mobile carrier industry in the future.
Reprinted from a notebook that allows you to read the settlement (article on December 22, 2017)
Shibatanako: SEARCHMAN co -founder.Completed a doctoral program at the Graduate School of Engineering, the University of Tokyo in 2009.He has been an executive officer of Rakuten, a researcher at Stanford University since 2009 since 2009.Founded to SEARCHMAN in Silicon Valley in 2011.Note is serializing "Notebooks that allow you to read financial results".