This is KNN Paul Kanda.
Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga declared his candidacy for the LDP presidential election on September 2, 2020. Among them, "reduction of mobile phone charges" was mentioned. With the experience of the Minister of Internal Affairs and Communications during the first Abe Cabinet era, the reduction of mobile phone charges was also Mr. Suga's long-cherished wish.
The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications has promoted competition between major companies and MVNOs (Virtual Mobile Network Operators) in response to the Chief Cabinet Secretary's remark that "there is room to reduce mobile phone charges by about 40%" in 2018. .. Also, in October 2019, the "Telecommunications Business Law Amendment" banned "two-year binding" and "terminal purchase assistance", creating a "separation plan" that clearly separates communication charges and terminal charges. It's almost a year. But what about the results?
The two-year bond penalty was less than 1,000 yen, but the movement from the three major mobile phone companies was hardly promoted, and the operating profit was maintained at 20% due to the sales efforts of each company. That is to say, the "mobile phone charge reduction campaign" launched by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications has all failed.
Every time the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications tightened the regulations, NTT DoCoMo, KDDI, and Softbank, three major Japanese mobile phone companies, changed their hands, changed their products, and introduced different plans and strange measures to comply with the regulations one after another. There are no simple and easy-to-switch campaigns or bounty plans, the discount rate is low, and a reversal phenomenon is created in which you lose money when you switch, and as a result, there is a tendency to continue using old mobile phones. Furthermore, sub-brands such as "Ymobile" and "UQ Mobile", which are subsidiaries of MVNO (Virtual Mobile Network Operator), can keep the outflow of customers within the group.
Isn't the "hypothesis" itself, which is the origin of regulation by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications lead, wrong? In addition, this time, Yoshihide Suga's policy also advocates "reduction of mobile charges" and "public business companies return 10% or more of operating profit", but operating profit can be adjusted with "fixed costs" as much as possible. It will end up. For example, if there is an excuse that the new government policy must adjust operating profit to 10% or less, shareholders will be able to speak.
Even if Mr. Yoshihide Suga becomes prime minister and steps to reduce mobile phone charges, if the hypothesis and preconditions are too different, it could lead to "compression on the private sector." Rather, why not propose a method that gives back to long-term users, such as the business model of automobile insurance? It should be easier for users to accept more benefits for long-term users, rather than reducing the hassle and cost of canceling.
The longer you have subscribed to "automobile insurance" without any accidents, the higher the grade and the lower the price. Yes, the business plan is to give back to users who never cause an accident and do not switch to another company. Users who do not switch at the same time will be the best money tree for a subscription model. Furthermore, it is a golden business model in which there is almost no variable cost for those who subscribe without accidents.
On the other hand, mobile phones have a plan structure in which the cost of acquiring new users is high, and the more "new" people who switch to Hoi Hoi, the more profitable they are. In the first place, the "MNP (Mobile Number Portability) (implemented from October 24, 2006)" system itself is also the factor that gave rise to the policy of making it easy to switch with the conventional phone number and the large-scale "MNP cashback campaign". .. The more the government moves, the more likely it is that a strong three-company system of mobile communication companies has been created by "cat and mouse," in which campaigns that utilize these measures are unfolded. .. In other words, the oligopolistic structure of the top three companies is the most convenient.
In the olden days, Rockefeller's "Standard Oil" was divided into 34 companies called "Seven Sisters" under the Antitrust Law (Sherman Law), and then "ExxonMobil", "Royal Dutch Shell" and "BP". 』Three companies.
Three American car makers, "General Motors (GM)", "Ford" and "Chrysler".
Three American TV stations, "NBC," "CBS," and "ABC."
In the US mobile phone company, "AT & T" will be divided into seven companies called "Baby Bell", but "T-" which acquired "Sprint" from "AT & T", "Verizon", and "Soft Bang G". Mobile ”returned to BIG3 again.
why? There is a reason why the oligopoly by these three companies is stable.
As a monopoly business company, one company is forced to dismantle and split due to the "Antitrust Law". That's why Microsoft didn't kill Apple from the market. The competition between the two companies is constantly intensifying, competing for a market share of 50% or more, and it will become a market that will never end. However, in the oligopolistic market of three companies, each company can have a market of around 33.3%, and it can be stable in terms of management as long as it provides equivalent services without unnecessary competition. .. If you own 33.33% (1/3) or more of the shares, you may have a management veto (special resolution of the general meeting of shareholders requires 2/3 or more voting rights).
The reason why the three Japanese mobile phone companies are similar services and do not always differentiate themselves with services that do not look good is the most stable in terms of management. No matter how much the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications and Chief Cabinet Secretary Suga try to reduce mobile phone charges, the reason why they do not decrease is that the structure of the three-way oligopoly market by BIG3 is strong.
Therefore, in order to defeat this BIG3, if the 4th and 5th powers increase their market share and the market share of the 4 companies reaches 25%, competition will intensify again.
Before Suntory entered the market, there were two Japanese beer companies, "Kirin" and "Dainippon Beer". In 1941, "Dainippon Beer" was divided into "Asahi" and "Sapporo", and there were three companies. In 1963, the whiskey maker Suntory entered the oligopoly market of BIG3, and after 20 years of running a deficit, it finally caught up with the current share of BIG4 with the hit of "Malt's" in the 1980s.
Japanese mobile phone companies are also privatized from "Nippon Telegraph and Telephone Public Corporation" (1988), NTT's mobile phone subsidiary "NTT Docomo", and "KDD (International Telegraph and Telephone Public Corporation)" which was separated from "Nippon Telegraph and Telephone Public Corporation". , And Kyocera's "DDI" and Toyota's "Nippon Mobile Communications (IDO)", which were launched in "Communication Liberalization", merged to become "KDDI" in 2000. "SoftBank" entered the market by acquiring "Vodafone", which acquired "Nippon Telecom" in 2001, in 2006. In July 2008, it increased its market share starting from the domestic exclusive sales of "iPhone 3G" and became the current BIG3. This is a pattern of new entry into two sibling companies, which is a common split from the top. Large-scale campaigns are conspicuous until Softbank gains the market share of the three companies, but after gaining the market share, it has almost the same strategic pattern as the top two companies.
On the other hand, telecommunications companies are a market with very high barriers to entry due to the installation of their own antennas, store maintenance costs, and huge marketing costs. Currently, Rakuten's "Rakuten Mobile" is claiming to be the fourth telecommunications company. In addition, the plan is free for one year for 3 million people. If the share of four companies with 120 million people is 25%, it is about 30 million people. It is a game to gain 10 times the market share of the current 3 million people who are free for one year.
Even if the actual price is 2,980 yen and 35,760 yen for one year is free, the "switching cost" of people's minds seems to be higher.
Not only does it lower the price of the mobile phone, but rather the confusing sign at the time of the "contract" of the mobile phone, the waiting time, going to the shop, talking on a non-human support phone, etc. Shouldn't the communication contract and identity verification be the only thing to put in a scalpel?
Isn't it because most of the time spent on mobile phone contracts involves end users in the rules for using radio waves under the jurisdiction of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications?
In the policy of Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga, I would like you to think in the direction of simplifying the mobile phone contract itself further upstream, rather than simply "freeing MNP transfer procedures." In addition to the "linking of savings account" of My Number Card, isn't there a plan that can be implemented at the desired level, such as lowering communication charges by linking phone numbers?
Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga, I think we can consider more about how to spend the 50 billion yen annual maintenance fee for My Number.